In this week’s Mortgage Market Update, we examine how mortgage rates are trending and where they’re likely headed.
MORTGAGE MARKET UPDATE
Rates currently trending: HIGHER
Mortgage rates are trending higher so far today. Last week the MBS market worsened by -57. This was enough to worsen mortgage rates or fees. Mortgage rate volatility returned the market.
This week’s rate forecast: HIGHER
Three Things: These three items have the greatest ability to impact mortgage rates this week. 1.) Domestic, 2.) Geopolitical and 3.) Fed.
1.) Domestic: Jobs, jobs, jobs. This week we get out Big Jobs Friday where we will see non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate. More importantly, we will get the average hourly wages data which has the greatest impact on mortgage rates. Through the week, however, we also get ADP private payrolls, challenger job cuts and weekly jobless claims to round out a ton of jobs related data this week. Besides the jobs data, the two biggest releases this week are ISM Manufacturing and ISM Services.
2.) Geopolitical: We have an important meeting of the G20 starting on Friday but there are plenty of “pre-G20” meetings going on. The markets will pay close attention to issues regarding North Korea, Russia and the Middle East. Brexit negotiations also will continue to get a lot of attention as well as speeches by key central bank figures across the pond.
3.) Fed: We will get the minutes from their last FOMC meeting where they raised rates and gave guidance on at least one more rate hike this year as well as decreasing the pace of treasuries and MBS purchases. We will get some more detailed background information from that meeting and it can have a big impact on mortgage rates this week. We also hear from James Bullard, John Williams and Jerome Powell this week.
This Week’s Potential Volatility: HIGH
Look for increased mortgage rate volatility again this week. Even with the shortened week, we have a lot of market moving data for the markets to digest.
The Bottom Line
If you’re looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them. If you are not working with a mortgage professional already, and are interested in buying a home in the state of Texas, please reach out to our team today for free information.
REALTOR REPORT – Home Prices Continue to Climb
In this month’s Realtor Report, we look at how home prices are changing and how affordability could be affected.
Low mortgage rates, steady demand and fewer available homes for sale have helped push real estate prices higher, which is good news for sellers and listing agents. However, rapid home price appreciation can create affordability problems, particularly in the lower tier starter homes market.
ATTOM’s (ATTOM Data Solutions) U.S. Home Affordability Index dropped to 100 in the second quarter of 2017. That’s the lowest level observed since the third quarter of 2008, when the index dipped to 86.
According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the national median home sales price has increased to $252,800.
“While home price appreciation in the second quarter accelerated to the fastest pace in more than three years, wage growth turned negative, posting the biggest year-over-year decrease in five years in Q4 2016 – the most recent average weekly wage data available,” Daren Blomquist, senior vice president of ATTOM, said in a statement. “That combination of accelerating home price growth and slowing wage growth, along with mortgage interest rates that are up to nearly 50 basis points from a year ago, eroded home affordability nationwide to the lowest level in nearly nine years.”
ATTOM also said that 210 of 464 US counties, or 45% of the total analyzed for the index, were less affordable compared with their historical affordability norms in the second quarter of this year. That’s the highest share reported since Q4 of 2009.
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