Should you buy now or wait for interest rates to fall? It's a fair question; rates fluctuate, and even a half- point shift could mean the difference of thousands of dollars on a mortgage over time. Here's what the data says about where mortgage rates are heading.

What Moves Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates typically track in line with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield. Home loans commonly include a "spread" of around 2.0 to 2.4 percentage points above the Treasury yield, covering the risk and costs of the loan. For example, a 4.5% Treasury yield plus a 2-point spread equals a roughly 6.5% 30-year mortgage rate.

The Five-Year Forecast

Combining Treasury yield projections with typical spreads gives one of the clearest looks at the expected path for 30-year fixed mortgage rates. Economists at Deloitte, a multinational professional services network, project Treasury yields to gradually ease through 2027, then hold steady until the end of the decade.

Using that projection, experts expect the 30-year mortgage rate to be around 6.4% in 2026, 5.8% in 2027, 6.1% in 2028, 5.9% in 2029, and near 5.6% in 2030.

Where Rates Stand Right Now

As of this summer, the average 30-year fixed rate is hovering around 6.47%. Barring any surprises, most experts expect the mid-6% range to hold for the next few months.

Nonetheless, uncertainty remains in areas that can affect interest rates. Turmoil in the Middle East, which typically puts pressure on oil markets, could nudge rates higher. Inflation shifts and Federal Reserve rate cuts remain wild cards that could push rates in either direction.

The Smart Strategy for DFW Buyers

Rather than waiting for a dramatic rate drop that isn't forecasted, plan for slow and steady rate adjustments.

With rising home inventory, the DFW housing market is trending in buyers' favor. Increasingly, sellers are offering concessions such as price reductions and rate buydowns to close deals. In many cases, the smart move is to buy today and refinance later if rates improve.

Trying to perfectly time the housing market usually leads to frustration and missed opportunities. You want to create a plan for how conditions are, not how you'd like them to be. Reach out to the Decker Group today to discuss a mortgage strategy tailored to your goals. Call us at (214) 908-6792 or connect with us online.